Event Reaction Lab

Method, in one paragraph

Every change in a policy rate recorded in MarketsGrid’s stored series counts as an event (hold decisions are excluded because they leave no trace in the rate itself). For each event we take the asset’s last observation on or before the decision date and its observation 1, 7, 30 and 90 days later, and report the percentage change. Where an asset only has monthly data around an event — for example gold before a daily feed is configured — the 1- and 7-day cells are left empty rather than approximated. Averages, medians and the share of positive outcomes are then shown per direction (cuts vs hikes). This is description of the past, not prediction.