63 decisions since 1999 · ECB Deposit Facility Rate
Markets after ECB rate decisions
Measured moves in gold, EUR/USD and oil after European Central Bank deposit rate changes since 1999.
Average move after a decision
Mean percentage change from the last observation on or before the decision date; n = number of decisions with usable data. Cells are empty where the asset lacks daily data around the event.
| Asset | Direction | +1d | +7d | +30d | +90d | Positive share (+30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldmonthly data | After cuts | +0.07%n=22 | +1.02%n=22 | +1.56%n=29 | +5.44%n=29 | 55% |
| After hikes | +0.20%n=23 | −0.16%n=23 | +0.49%n=31 | +2.48%n=29 | 45% | |
| EUR/USDmonthly data | After cuts | +0.18%n=23 | +0.19%n=31 | −0.13%n=31 | +0.44%n=31 | 45% |
| After hikes | −0.15%n=24 | −0.19%n=31 | −0.47%n=32 | −0.44%n=30 | 41% | |
| Brentdaily data | After cuts | +0.19%n=23 | −0.94%n=31 | −2.60%n=31 | +2.15%n=31 | 45% |
| After hikes | −1.37%n=25 | +0.26%n=32 | +0.00%n=31 | +0.30%n=31 | 52% | |
| US 10Ydaily data | After cuts | −0.05%n=23 | −0.64%n=31 | +0.96%n=31 | +1.90%n=31 | 55% |
| After hikes | +0.44%n=24 | +1.17%n=31 | +0.72%n=32 | −0.53%n=30 | 59% |
Every decision
| Date | Change | Level | Gold +30d | EUR/USD +30d | Brent +30d | US 10Y +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Hike +25 bps | 2.50% | −3.92% | −3.67% | — | +8.58% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Hike +25 bps | 2.25% | −7.42% | −1.35% | +5.83% | +1.34% |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Cut -25 bps | 2.00% | +0.17% | +2.19% | +1.08% | +0.45% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Cut -25 bps | 2.25% | +0.36% | −1.00% | −4.18% | +2.50% |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Cut -25 bps | 2.50% | +10.38% | +4.23% | −7.64% | +3.70% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Cut -25 bps | 2.75% | +1.74% | +4.17% | −2.97% | −2.48% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Cut -25 bps | 3.00% | +2.76% | −1.89% | +11.33% | +2.44% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Cut -25 bps | 3.25% | −1.44% | −3.30% | +1.90% | +4.01% |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Cut -25 bps | 3.50% | +5.43% | −2.49% | −2.38% | +10.27% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Cut -25 bps | 3.75% | +3.74% | +1.16% | +8.48% | −3.02% |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Hike +25 bps | 4.00% | +2.32% | −1.04% | −0.89% | +13.33% |
| Aug 2, 2023 | Hike +25 bps | 3.75% | −0.82% | −1.28% | +7.11% | +2.45% |
| Jun 21, 2023 | Hike +25 bps | 3.50% | +1.81% | +1.83% | +5.38% | +3.23% |
| May 10, 2023 | Hike +25 bps | 3.25% | −3.77% | −1.55% | −2.56% | +9.33% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | Hike +50 bps | 3.00% | +1.25% | +1.79% | +9.57% | +2.59% |
| Feb 8, 2023 | Hike +50 bps | 2.50% | −0.61% | −1.39% | −2.22% | +1.93% |
| Dec 21, 2022 | Hike +50 bps | 2.00% | +5.90% | +1.79% | +8.36% | −5.43% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | Hike +75 bps | 1.50% | +8.20% | +6.36% | −9.92% | −14.39% |
| Sep 14, 2022 | Hike +75 bps | 0.75% | −3.20% | −2.73% | −0.66% | +17.30% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Hike +50 bps | 0.00% | +2.17% | −1.43% | −7.76% | +9.35% |
| Sep 18, 2019 | Cut -10 bps | -0.50% | −0.90% | +0.82% | −6.74% | −2.22% |
| Mar 16, 2016 | Cut -10 bps | -0.40% | −0.11% | +1.99% | +7.66% | −9.28% |
| Dec 9, 2015 | Cut -10 bps | -0.30% | +1.93% | −0.73% | −18.88% | −4.05% |
| Sep 10, 2014 | Cut -10 bps | -0.20% | −2.56% | −2.25% | −7.90% | −9.06% |
| Jun 11, 2014 | Cut -10 bps | -0.10% | +5.78% | +0.35% | −3.70% | −4.53% |
| Jul 11, 2012 | Cut -25 bps | 0.00% | +2.63% | +0.02% | +14.01% | +7.14% |
| Dec 14, 2011 | Cut -25 bps | 0.25% | +2.03% | −1.71% | +3.93% | −1.56% |
| Nov 9, 2011 | Cut -25 bps | 0.50% | −4.20% | −1.83% | −6.40% | +3.50% |
| Jul 13, 2011 | Hike +25 bps | 0.75% | +9.94% | +1.26% | −8.69% | −23.29% |
| Apr 13, 2011 | Hike +25 bps | 0.50% | +3.31% | −1.47% | −7.84% | −8.88% |
| Apr 8, 2009 | Cut -25 bps | 0.25% | +3.07% | +1.47% | +7.61% | +15.03% |
| Mar 11, 2009 | Cut -50 bps | 0.50% | −2.11% | +3.81% | +21.13% | +0.34% |
| Jan 21, 2009 | Cut -100 bps | 1.00% | +16.45% | −2.47% | +5.74% | +8.59% |
| Dec 10, 2008 | Cut -75 bps | 2.00% | +5.61% | +5.87% | +7.63% | −9.67% |
| Nov 12, 2008 | Cut -50 bps | 2.75% | +14.04% | +6.46% | −19.23% | −30.67% |
| Oct 9, 2008 | Hike +50 bps | 3.25% | −16.78% | −6.77% | −30.39% | −0.26% |
| Oct 8, 2008 | Cut -50 bps | 2.75% | −18.62% | −7.10% | −29.63% | +2.96% |
| Jul 9, 2008 | Hike +25 bps | 3.25% | −8.06% | −4.08% | −15.59% | +2.34% |
| Jun 13, 2007 | Hike +25 bps | 3.00% | +2.91% | +3.73% | +12.82% | −1.73% |
| Mar 14, 2007 | Hike +25 bps | 2.75% | +5.98% | +2.65% | +12.96% | +5.08% |
| Dec 13, 2006 | Hike +25 bps | 2.50% | −0.68% | −2.80% | −19.29% | +4.15% |
| Oct 11, 2006 | Hike +25 bps | 2.25% | +9.62% | +2.56% | +2.48% | −3.97% |
| Aug 9, 2006 | Hike +25 bps | 2.00% | −6.01% | −1.29% | −17.84% | −2.85% |
| Jun 15, 2006 | Hike +25 bps | 1.75% | +16.47% | +0.44% | +15.28% | −0.59% |
| Mar 8, 2006 | Hike +25 bps | 1.50% | +8.26% | +2.22% | +14.88% | +5.07% |
| Dec 6, 2005 | Hike +25 bps | 1.25% | +2.90% | +2.59% | +10.78% | −2.90% |
| Jun 6, 2003 | Cut -50 bps | 1.00% | −1.40% | −2.94% | −1.44% | +8.90% |
| Mar 7, 2003 | Cut -25 bps | 1.50% | −3.81% | −2.89% | −25.67% | +9.09% |
| Dec 6, 2002 | Cut -50 bps | 1.75% | +7.53% | +3.86% | +22.44% | −0.98% |
| Nov 9, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 2.25% | 0.00% | −0.21% | −14.04% | +19.82% |
| Sep 18, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 2.75% | 0.00% | −2.48% | −30.25% | −2.97% |
| Aug 31, 2001 | Cut -25 bps | 3.25% | — | −0.29% | −18.40% | −5.15% |
| May 11, 2001 | Cut -25 bps | 3.50% | −0.74% | −3.48% | +3.25% | −2.36% |
| Oct 6, 2000 | Hike +25 bps | 3.75% | −1.48% | +0.31% | +4.02% | +0.17% |
| Sep 1, 2000 | Hike +25 bps | 3.50% | −1.46% | −1.54% | −19.01% | +2.11% |
| Jun 9, 2000 | Hike +50 bps | 3.25% | −1.40% | −0.07% | +5.59% | −1.96% |
| Apr 28, 2000 | Hike +25 bps | 2.75% | — | +0.64% | +26.48% | +1.61% |
| Mar 17, 2000 | Hike +25 bps | 2.50% | −2.10% | −1.36% | −20.60% | −5.65% |
| Feb 4, 2000 | Hike +25 bps | 2.25% | −4.67% | −1.79% | +8.55% | −2.14% |
| Nov 5, 1999 | Hike +50 bps | 2.00% | −3.41% | −3.78% | +14.78% | +4.22% |
| Apr 9, 1999 | Cut -50 bps | 1.50% | −2.47% | +0.07% | +10.99% | +9.70% |
| Jan 22, 1999 | Cut -75 bps | 2.00% | — | −3.49% | −8.37% | +9.27% |
| Jan 4, 1999 | Hike +75 bps | 2.75% | 0.00% | −3.83% | −1.46% | +2.99% |
Reading these numbers
A rate cut is not an isolated cause: cuts cluster in slowdowns and crises, so “gold after cuts” partly measures “gold in crises”. The dispersion around each average is large, and the sample is small by statistical standards. Treat the table as a record of what happened, not as an expected return. Where MarketsGrid holds only monthly averages for an asset in a period, short windows are blank; adding a licensed daily feed fills them in automatically.