109 decisions since 1990 · Federal Funds Target Rate (Upper Bound)
Markets after Fed rate decisions
Average and median moves in gold, silver, oil and the dollar 1, 7, 30 and 90 days after every Federal Reserve rate cut, hike and hold since 1990.
Average move after a decision
Mean percentage change from the last observation on or before the decision date; n = number of decisions with usable data. Cells are empty where the asset lacks daily data around the event.
| Asset | Direction | +1d | +7d | +30d | +90d | Positive share (+30d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldmonthly data | After cuts | +0.37%n=20 | +0.31%n=21 | +1.26%n=49 | +4.05%n=47 | 45% |
| After hikes | +0.24%n=25 | +0.51%n=25 | +1.03%n=45 | +2.59%n=44 | 60% | |
| Silvermonthly data | After cuts | +0.74%n=21 | +0.99%n=21 | +2.85%n=49 | +8.95%n=47 | 51% |
| After hikes | +0.06%n=17 | −0.44%n=25 | +0.17%n=45 | +2.89%n=44 | 49% | |
| Brentdaily data | After cuts | +0.38%n=49 | −1.11%n=57 | −2.88%n=57 | −2.51%n=57 | 40% |
| After hikes | +0.45%n=51 | +0.30%n=52 | +2.62%n=51 | +4.96%n=51 | 59% | |
| EUR/USDmonthly data | After cuts | +0.18%n=32 | −0.16%n=34 | −0.67%n=34 | −0.01%n=34 | 35% |
| After hikes | −0.17%n=43 | −0.21%n=43 | −0.16%n=44 | +0.02%n=43 | 41% | |
| US 10Ydaily data | After cuts | +0.17%n=48 | −0.18%n=57 | −1.41%n=57 | +0.32%n=57 | 37% |
| After hikes | −0.06%n=50 | +0.28%n=52 | +1.13%n=52 | +3.01%n=51 | 52% | |
| US 2Ydaily data | After cuts | +0.37%n=48 | −0.25%n=57 | −4.02%n=57 | −3.23%n=57 | 30% |
| After hikes | −0.02%n=50 | +0.47%n=52 | +2.44%n=52 | +8.06%n=51 | 52% |
Every decision
| Date | Change | Level | Gold +30d | Silver +30d | Brent +30d | EUR/USD +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Hike +25 bps | 4.00% | −4.24% | −12.44% | — | −3.67% |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Cut -25 bps | 3.75% | +6.37% | +27.39% | +5.24% | −0.61% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Cut -25 bps | 4.00% | +5.86% | +16.86% | −1.60% | +0.14% |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Cut -25 bps | 4.25% | +16.42% | +24.48% | −9.73% | −1.16% |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Cut -25 bps | 4.50% | +4.02% | +4.67% | +12.57% | −0.93% |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Cut -25 bps | 4.75% | −1.19% | −1.34% | −0.35% | −1.77% |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Cut -50 bps | 5.00% | +5.11% | +10.20% | −4.19% | −2.77% |
| Jul 27, 2023 | Hike +25 bps | 5.50% | −1.53% | +0.60% | +1.35% | −2.85% |
| May 4, 2023 | Hike +25 bps | 5.25% | −3.98% | −9.81% | +4.11% | −2.81% |
| Mar 23, 2023 | Hike +25 bps | 5.00% | −0.22% | +7.05% | +12.18% | +0.91% |
| Feb 2, 2023 | Hike +25 bps | 4.75% | −4.19% | −9.87% | +6.42% | −3.39% |
| Dec 15, 2022 | Hike +50 bps | 4.50% | +6.93% | +4.48% | +1.32% | +1.82% |
| Nov 3, 2022 | Hike +75 bps | 4.00% | +9.58% | +11.14% | −9.18% | +8.05% |
| Sep 22, 2022 | Hike +75 bps | 3.25% | −1.71% | −1.52% | +1.57% | −1.56% |
| Jul 28, 2022 | Hike +75 bps | 2.50% | −0.13% | −4.60% | −7.80% | −1.14% |
| Jun 16, 2022 | Hike +75 bps | 1.75% | −6.59% | −14.48% | −10.75% | −3.28% |
| May 5, 2022 | Hike +50 bps | 1.00% | −2.50% | −0.70% | +12.10% | +1.53% |
| Mar 17, 2022 | Hike +25 bps | 0.50% | +0.70% | +1.24% | −2.35% | −1.57% |
| Mar 16, 2020 | Cut -100 bps | 0.25% | +15.53% | +20.09% | −29.24% | −2.28% |
| Mar 4, 2020 | Cut -50 bps | 1.25% | −1.75% | −16.58% | −53.09% | −3.06% |
| Oct 31, 2019 | Cut -25 bps | 1.75% | −3.36% | −6.04% | +8.77% | −1.54% |
| Sep 19, 2019 | Cut -25 bps | 2.00% | −0.71% | −1.80% | −6.68% | +0.70% |
| Aug 1, 2019 | Cut -25 bps | 2.25% | +6.29% | +14.87% | −2.96% | −0.01% |
| Dec 20, 2018 | Hike +25 bps | 2.50% | +1.94% | +4.74% | +17.41% | −0.43% |
| Sep 27, 2018 | Hike +25 bps | 2.25% | +4.09% | +1.87% | −5.08% | −3.09% |
| Jun 14, 2018 | Hike +25 bps | 2.00% | −4.69% | −7.68% | −0.88% | −0.74% |
| Mar 22, 2018 | Hike +25 bps | 1.75% | +0.57% | +3.57% | +8.18% | −0.06% |
| Dec 14, 2017 | Hike +25 bps | 1.50% | +6.06% | +6.93% | +9.29% | +2.47% |
| Jun 15, 2017 | Hike +25 bps | 1.25% | −1.93% | −6.82% | +5.00% | +2.23% |
| Mar 16, 2017 | Hike +25 bps | 1.00% | +4.46% | +6.30% | +8.88% | −0.90% |
| Dec 15, 2016 | Hike +25 bps | 0.75% | +5.63% | +3.84% | +5.12% | +2.32% |
| Dec 17, 2015 | Hike +25 bps | 0.50% | +4.23% | −1.99% | −20.64% | +0.67% |
| Dec 16, 2008 | Cut -75 bps | 0.25% | −3.37% | +0.10% | +0.76% | −4.42% |
| Oct 29, 2008 | Cut -50 bps | 1.00% | +6.61% | +7.89% | −25.44% | −0.34% |
| Oct 8, 2008 | Cut -50 bps | 1.50% | −18.62% | −13.05% | −29.63% | −7.10% |
| Apr 30, 2008 | Cut -25 bps | 2.00% | +1.70% | +2.31% | +15.06% | −0.21% |
| Mar 18, 2008 | Cut -75 bps | 2.25% | −5.72% | −8.93% | +5.69% | +0.64% |
| Jan 30, 2008 | Cut -50 bps | 3.00% | +5.71% | +17.06% | +9.13% | +2.41% |
| Jan 22, 2008 | Cut -75 bps | 3.50% | +8.00% | +15.48% | +10.68% | +1.67% |
| Dec 11, 2007 | Cut -25 bps | 4.25% | +9.34% | +6.88% | +5.73% | −0.07% |
| Oct 31, 2007 | Cut -25 bps | 4.50% | −0.76% | −0.63% | −1.29% | +2.17% |
| Sep 18, 2007 | Cut -50 bps | 4.75% | +6.91% | +5.56% | +10.43% | +3.12% |
| Jun 29, 2006 | Hike +25 bps | 5.25% | +8.12% | +9.25% | +1.27% | +1.08% |
| May 10, 2006 | Hike +25 bps | 5.00% | −11.99% | −20.43% | −1.00% | −0.94% |
| Mar 28, 2006 | Hike +25 bps | 4.75% | +12.42% | +15.82% | +11.63% | +2.73% |
| Jan 31, 2006 | Hike +25 bps | 4.50% | −0.88% | −1.24% | −1.46% | −1.63% |
| Dec 13, 2005 | Hike +25 bps | 4.25% | +6.37% | +4.65% | +6.41% | +1.58% |
| Nov 1, 2005 | Hike +25 bps | 4.00% | +6.92% | +8.86% | −5.36% | −2.19% |
| Sep 20, 2005 | Hike +25 bps | 3.75% | +3.07% | +6.94% | −9.43% | −1.65% |
| Aug 9, 2005 | Hike +25 bps | 3.50% | +4.11% | +2.86% | −1.80% | +0.41% |
| Jun 30, 2005 | Hike +25 bps | 3.25% | — | — | +7.97% | +0.01% |
| May 3, 2005 | Hike +25 bps | 3.00% | +2.13% | +4.29% | +3.68% | −4.61% |
| Mar 22, 2005 | Hike +25 bps | 2.75% | — | — | −6.61% | −0.89% |
| Feb 2, 2005 | Hike +25 bps | 2.50% | +2.60% | +2.86% | +17.95% | +0.41% |
| Dec 14, 2004 | Hike +25 bps | 2.25% | −4.07% | −7.04% | +23.58% | −0.64% |
| Nov 10, 2004 | Hike +25 bps | 2.00% | +0.68% | −5.33% | −12.52% | +1.65% |
| Sep 21, 2004 | Hike +25 bps | 1.75% | +3.70% | +10.94% | +14.59% | +2.69% |
| Aug 10, 2004 | Hike +25 bps | 1.50% | +1.00% | −4.48% | −2.47% | −0.72% |
| Jun 30, 2004 | Hike +25 bps | 1.25% | — | — | +24.83% | −0.95% |
| Jun 25, 2003 | Cut -25 bps | 1.00% | — | — | +3.51% | −0.64% |
| Nov 6, 2002 | Cut -50 bps | 1.25% | +4.08% | +2.22% | +8.18% | +0.51% |
| Dec 11, 2001 | Cut -25 bps | 1.75% | +2.17% | +2.27% | +11.93% | +0.01% |
| Nov 6, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 2.00% | 0.00% | +7.32% | −0.38% | −0.80% |
| Oct 2, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 2.50% | −2.47% | −6.82% | −8.92% | −1.00% |
| Sep 17, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 3.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | −31.25% | −2.66% |
| Aug 21, 2001 | Cut -25 bps | 3.50% | +4.04% | +4.76% | +0.83% | +1.44% |
| Jun 27, 2001 | Cut -25 bps | 3.75% | — | — | −5.45% | +1.69% |
| May 15, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 4.00% | −0.74% | 0.00% | +2.22% | −3.15% |
| Apr 18, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 4.50% | +4.62% | 0.00% | +12.22% | −0.01% |
| Mar 20, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 5.00% | −1.14% | 0.00% | +9.44% | −2.14% |
| Jan 31, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 5.50% | — | — | −4.93% | +0.75% |
| Jan 3, 2001 | Cut -50 bps | 6.00% | −1.13% | −2.13% | +23.29% | −1.29% |
| May 16, 2000 | Hike +50 bps | 6.50% | +4.00% | 0.00% | +3.44% | +5.06% |
| Mar 21, 2000 | Hike +25 bps | 6.00% | −2.10% | 0.00% | −5.46% | −3.35% |
| Feb 2, 2000 | Hike +25 bps | 5.75% | −4.67% | −1.92% | +9.87% | −0.60% |
| Nov 16, 1999 | Hike +25 bps | 5.50% | −3.41% | 0.00% | +4.86% | −1.84% |
| Aug 24, 1999 | Hike +25 bps | 5.25% | — | — | +14.31% | −0.78% |
| Jun 30, 1999 | Hike +25 bps | 5.00% | — | — | +17.68% | +3.54% |
| Nov 17, 1998 | Cut -25 bps | 4.75% | −0.68% | −2.00% | −6.59% | — |
| Oct 15, 1998 | Cut -25 bps | 5.00% | −0.68% | 0.00% | −4.34% | — |
Showing the 80 most recent of 109 decisions.
Reading these numbers
A rate cut is not an isolated cause: cuts cluster in slowdowns and crises, so “gold after cuts” partly measures “gold in crises”. The dispersion around each average is large, and the sample is small by statistical standards. Treat the table as a record of what happened, not as an expected return. Where MarketsGrid holds only monthly averages for an asset in a period, short windows are blank; adding a licensed daily feed fills them in automatically.